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Two hands I won last night on Empire’s 3/6 tables with stuff I remembered from Hank:
Preflop: Hero is BB with 3h, Td.
4 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO raises, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.
Flop: (8 SB) 2c, Ah, 5d (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, SB calls, Hero calls, MP2 folds.
Turn: (5.50 BB) 4s (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, SB calls, Hero raises, CO calls, SB calls.
River: (11.50 BB) 2s (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB calls.
Final Pot: 14.50 BB
SB has Ac Th (two pair, aces and twos).
Hero has 3h Td (straight, five high).
CO has Ad Kc (two pair, aces and twos).
Outcome: Hero wins 14.50 BB.
No non-pair hand is that big of a dog to another non-pair hand, so defend your blind. Getting 10:1 for my gutshot is good odds, and clearly the implied odds makes it even better.
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7h, 3s. CO posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.
Flop: (5 SB) 6d, 5d, Ts (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, CO bets, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds.
Turn: (4 BB) 9h (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, SB calls, Hero calls.
River: (7 BB) 4s (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB folds.
Final Pot: 9 BB
Hero has 7h 3s (straight, seven high).
CO has Ac 9c (one pair, nines).
Outcome: Hero wins 9 BB.
Again, no non-pair hand is that big of a dog. While the express odds are not great for my hand, if I make my draw on the turn, I’m probably getting better than 10:1 in implied odds. I was also counting on getting another call or two behind me (didn’t happen). If I just improve my draw, I get one more shot at making the winning hand with improved odds.
Still, I’m on thin ice on this one. There are two flush cards out there, and it’s easy to go broke drawing to the sucker end of a straight, especially if someone out there has already made the better straight. The better play here might have been to check-raise the turn.
It’s a thin line between relying on implied odds and being a fish. 🙂 The beauty, though, is that showing down garbage hands like this, even in the blinds, helped me get action for my big pairs and better draws later on.
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In these two hands I probably netted 15BB. The guide costs just under 7BB. Do the math.
Dude, Glyph, we need to talk. Your pre-flop play in hand #1 w/T3o was absurd. You can’t call there. Maybe if its HU and you have a good postflop handle on your opponent, you can, but not with MP1 in and Button with a coldcall following CO’s raise. You will lose mucho $$$ in the long run on this crazy play. Postflop your line is fine, and I like the turn C/R and river value bet. You’ve got to call a river raise if you face one.
Hand #2 isn’t quite as bad. The flush draw on the flop has got to reduce your effective outs at least somewhat, since you will sometimes make your gutter and still lose to a frush. Ed Miller talks about this in his book in the “partial outs” section. So you’re getting 7:1 on the flop on a 3.5 outer, plus maybe 1/3 of an out for each of your 3 sevens and 2/3 out for the non diamond runner-runner 89 making 4.5 effective outs. Seven to one is OK with 4.5 effective outs, but it ain’t great, in part because you can easily make some of those hands and still face betting on the turn (the sevens or the first leg of the runner-runner).
By the turn on hand #2, you’ve improved and you’ve learned more about SB’s hand. He likely has a draw, and quite possibly the flush draw. What else is he check-calling with on both streets? He could have a slowplayed straight, or even a draw to a bigger straight. The diamond draw is still most likely — and that means your double gut is only worth 6 outs, not 8. The sevens are likely no good as outs vs a reasonable CO player, so that’s 6 effective outs getting 6:1. You’re close, but still slightly -EV unless you can get a bet or two on the end.
You say you think you probably should have C/Red the turn. No way. This puts the most money in when you have only one card to go, and I doubt you’re folding CO out (or SB if he has a pair), so your folding equity is zero or close to it. If you thought you could fold SB out AND CO could be beat with a pair of sevens or a river bluff, you MIGHT consider that line. I dunno.
Check-raising the flop sounds interesting as it would clean up some of your outs (esp. the 7’s), but I think it’s highly unwise with the flush draw out. You’ll never be able to price frush draws out on the turn if you bloat the pot on the flop. Again, this is an Ed Miller thing.
Your value bet on the river is goot, and of course I think you can call a raise… maybe 3-bet if you know he’ll raise you w/o the nuts. Also, you refer to meta-game considerations like showing down trash. This advice is a big time “buyer beware,” since it only applies when your opponents are paying attention. In 3/6, they might be, but at 2/4 and lower I think we both know they’re not. So “advertising plays” go down in value almost to zero. 6Max games might be an exception, since you do tend to get more action if you’re perceived as a maniac.
Interesting hands, and I hope my thoughts are somehow beneficial. I’d be interested in continuing this discussion — I think we’ll both benefit.
-EV
Oh, yeah, and you’re dead on re: PT Guide. It is def worth the price!!!
Those calls look pretty thin there, Glyph. Run ’em by Hank and see what he thinks. I defend my blinds as much as anyone in the low limits and I would’ve tossed ’em both.
I’m all for defending heads-up with almost any two, but throw a couple others in the mix and the chance of an overpair decimates those low, offsuit hands.
I like the outside-the-box thinking though.
Keep the comments coming, people…
I think this is one of those things where I have to look into PT to see if all the small bets I’ve “wasted” outweigh the big bets I’ve earned.
As for HDouble? Well, that guy’s pretty fishy, so I think he comes down on my side on this one. 🙂
I’m sitting in Inchon International Airport an hour west of Seoul, Korea. 16 hours travel time so far from my front door. Another 5 hours until my flight for Beijing takes off. Two hours in the air and then I sit around and see if the Beijing students pull through and actually meet me in the airport. Thankfully this airport has access to Internet and a smoker’s lounge. Now I just need to find some booze at 5 in the morning (local time).
Glyph, I don’t know if you ever look at 2+2, but there’s a really good thread about blind defense in the mid/high-limit forum going on right now.
The amount of EV you sacrifice by calling a limper, raiser, and coldcaller PF out of position with T3o cannot be overcome postflop, even with perfect play. I promise you man, can’t be done.
Those guys put me on tilt. But I’ll check it out.
—
I decided to put the first hand into PokerStove to see what was up:
Td3h: 19.9091 %
AcTh: 17.6048 %
AdKc: 62.4861 %
Yup. I’m a 3:1 dog getting 7:1 on my call. However, with MP2’s random hand thrown in there (more on that later), I’m actually not as much of a dog as I would be just 3-way.
On the flop:
Td3h: 17.3865 %
AcTh: 08.7486 %
AdKc: 73.8649 %
Now PokerStove tells I’m a 4:1 dog getting … 10:1 on my call.
On the turn:
Td3h: 95.2381 %
AcTh: 02.3810 %
AdKc: 73.8649 %
Now they’re drawing to 3 outs for a chop.
—
I don’t know how useful looking at the PokerStove numbers is, but here’s some of what I knew in the hand:
The preflop raiser is tight and fairly solid (15/4/29), the small blind is somewhat loose, but more importantly is somewhat aggressive and overplays his hands (30/11/45). The limper is really loose and also stays in too long (68/0/45).
I figure that I make money when I’m in a hand against loose players who stay in too long. Add to that my unnatural fixation with calling a raise from the big blind with almost any two. So I call a small bet to see a flop, and I’m going to need a draw to the winning hand or a miracle flop in order to continue in the hand.
Sometimes the draws don’t work out…. Four biggest losses in the BB that day after calling a preflop raise:
A8 (4BB) – It’s folded to the SB who raises with KJ. I call and flop top pair on the 822 board. SB bets and I raise; SB calls. The turn is a J. SB check-calls. The river is a 2. SB bets and I call with my weaker boat. I think checking behind on the turn would be a mistake. I don’t know if it hit him, but if I check, he knows it missed me.
72s (3.5BB) – Fish calls and Fishy Maniac raises from the CO with JTs. I call and flop the OESD on the 534 board, none of which are his suit. I check, Fish checks, and CO bets. I raise, the fish folds, and the CO calls. The turn is a Q. I bet and the CO raises all-in for less than a SB. The river is an 8 and his QJ high wins.
97s (3BB) – EP calls, LP raises, CO calls, SB calls, I call, EP calls. I flop the flush draw and a runner-runner straight draw on the T45 board. SB checks, I check, and to my horror, everyone checks around! Fuck. The turn brings the Ace of my suit, and this time I bet and get 4 callers. Fuck. The river’s the 2 of my suit, and I check. EP bets and two people call by the time it gets to me. I know my hand can’t be good with this many callers, but I put in another BB. Surprisingly, only one of my opponents had a flush. It just happened to be the nut flush. The other two had runner-runner two pair with A2o. Bwahaha.
Q8s (3BB) – EP calls, Fish calls, SB raises, I call, and the other two call. I flop a flush draw and a gutshot straight draw on the 569 board. SB bets, I raise, EP calls, Fish calls, and SB folds! The turn is an A, I bet and get two callers. River brings no help and it’s checked around; EP takes it down with a pair of aces. He was also drawing to the flush, so I had no outs there. Fish called it down with a flopped pair of nines.
Critique away! Paying off the higher flush was a bit of a mistake; drawing to a weaker flush was a huge one. Saving a big bet per hand would been nice.
Still, my four biggest wins in the BB after calling a preflop raise (without a strong hand) netted 9.5BB, 4.75BB, 4.75BB, and 3.83BB. Granted, we’re talking short-run results here, but I think it’s worth investigating further.
Post-flop play > pre-flop hand selection.
But I’m just a small stakes break-even player, so don’t take my word for it. 🙂
It sounds like I’m being defensive, but really I’m not. 🙂
I do think you’re discounting the advertising value here to a certain extent. My big hands were paid off big in these sessions. I’m just not posting the hand histories of how KK and JJ held up against weaker hands in the next few orbits, but they did, and did so for 15BB and 9BB pots respectively. These pots weren’t inflated by draws, either. People were calling down with top pair or middle pair. I think they thought I was a fish or a maniac.
Glyphic,
Interesting information, and I fully agree that “post-flop play > pre-flop hand selection.” That’s where the money is, and where a player can always improve the most. As you say, studying hands is a useful thing, and I’m glad to see that you’re doing so here.
First off, you run the numbers in PokerStove… a nice thing to do but 99.0% useless in my view. Here’s why: were your opponents playing their hands face up? If not, how could you put them on such a narrow range of exactly what they had as you played the hand? Will you have this information next time its raised on your BB with T3o? No, you will not. And of course they’re raising and coldcalling with a range of hands that tops out at AA and goes downward in varying degrees according to their VP$IP and other playing tendencies. Data-mining is your friend.
Since you have pokerstove, you can run your T3o in a sim against ranges of hands. Try this: AA-99, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, JTs, AKo-AJo, KQo for the raiser (since he’s solid). Maybe that range is a little TOO wide, since he only PFR 4% of the time, but he is in LP and facing a single limper. For SB, include about the top 15 to 17% of starting hands… since his VP$IP is 30 and he is out of position facing a raise, I don’t think he’ll CALL with 30% here. For MP2, we need a read to decide what his range might be. If MP2 is a reasonable 3/6 player, there are very few hands that get limped here… almost any hand that is good for a call is better for a raise when its folded to you in late MP. So I’ll go with this range for a limp: Axs, 55-88, KTo, KJo, QTo, QJs, JTs, T9s, ATo, J9s, JT, and maybe a few others. Note that I would never open-limp any of these hands in MP2, barring exceptional table circumstances. If you run that sim, I think you’ll see that you are giving up a fuckton of money with your loose PF call.
Another thing to note on the pokerstove sim is that this is raw equity… the % of the time you’d win if it were all in and there is no future betting. Problem for you is, there IS future betting. With your weak hand, even if you spike a pair, perhaps even top pair, you will have to face bets and/or raises all the way to the end and your hand STILL might not be good. You are laying reverse implied odds with this hand, so your effective equity is much lower PF than 19.9% or whatever. And again, I gather your real equity, vs opponents not playing their hands face up, you can assume your equity is yet lower.
You say that you “make money when I’m in a hand against loose players who stay in too long.” While semi-true, in actuality I think you need to add an additional qualifier and say this instead: “I make money when I’m in a hand against loose players who stay in too long, and I start with a superior hand. A guy who stays in too long with his pocket 4’s versus your T3o is in fine shape, as a sim will surely show you.
Another thing that strikes me is your focus on wins and losses during a particular day. I’d toss that out and just look at things as a longer, more continuous session. Look long-term at what your biggest losing hands are, per the PT guide. I’ll bet strange offsuit non-connected hands in the blinds are right up there if you’ve been playing this way at 3/6. Esp. from the SB, which is only 1/3 of the BB, meaning your calling requirements are MUCH higher than they are in the SB at 2/4. Point is, it doesn’t matter if you won some money or lost some with A8 on a particular day. It’s how you play that hand and that position over the long run. Forest, not trees.
On the specific hand examples you give, I like most of the A8 hand, except that I don’t see how you just call the river. I’m very tempted to raise for value. You are right that you cannot check behind on the turn… your top pair is too vulnerable. You bet the turn because you believed you were ahead, and he gave you no signal that you were not. Why change that read when the river could not possibly put him ahead if he wasn’t already?? Raise and call a 3-bet.
You called 72s for a raise? Go flog thyself. Seriously. NEVER AGAIN, m’kay? Postflop the flop C/R is fine, don’t bet the turn (but call if faced with a bet), and of course muck it on the river UI.
97s isn’t that bad, but it ain’t great. Calling is fine if table conditions are right. Bet-fold this river… you’ll induce a call from worse hands some of the time, and get away for the same price if raised (when you’re clearly behind).
Q8s… the SB raised. Unless he’s a complete muppet, this means a huge hand, esp. at 3/6 where the SB is only 1/3 of the BB. Your frop raise here is interesting, and I might do it if I thought SB didn’t have a big pair (but how do you know he doesn’t? A 3-bet from him is PAINFUL). You cannot bet this turn… chip spewing in the nth degree. You have no pair, a gutter draw, and a draw to second pair no kicker. Sweet.
Again, good to see you’re doing some hand-study. I’d suggest you get on the 2+2 small-stakes board pronto… I know it helps me a LOT. Additionally, on a meta-game level, try reading Dr. Alan Schoonmaker’s “Denial: Part III” article (http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/current/schoonmaker0505.html) in the 2+2 internet mag… it has opened my mind a TON and might help too. Good luck man, see ya around the 3/6.