Expected Value

Phil Gordon went to a charity event for the Cancer Research and Prevention Foundation and did a little gambling:

They had a raffle for some brilliant prizes, and being the sorta guy I am, I decided to take a shot. Raffle tickets were selling for $25 a piece until you go to the $500 donation level when they went for $20 a piece. At a $1000 level, you get 100 tickets ($10 a ticket). Everyone seemed to be buying $25 tickets, so I thought what the hell, lets make a nice sizable donation…. I bought $2000 worth and got 200 tickets in exchange. Then, I found out that I bought them from the “wrong girl” and that there was a contest going on whereby the girl with the most tickets sold got a prize. So, I ended up buying another $2000 in tickets. $4000 in tickets purchased in all. By my calculations, I had about 1/3 of the tickets in play.

To make a long story short, I won the top two prizes:

Two round trip tickets to Sydney on Qantas in the “sleeper” seats plus 6 nights at the Sydney Harbor Marriott. $25k value.

and…

Two round trip business class tickets to anywhere in Europe courtesy of American Airlines. $18k value.

$43,000 for $4000. Not bad. My girlfriend was extremely happy as well, as you might imagine.

So if he had 1/3 of the tickets in play, and we assume the other 2/3 were purchased at $25 per ticket, he contributed 20% of the donation pool for a 33% chance of winning at least one prize and ended up with an ROI of 1075%. Not bad.

Read more at his MySpace blog.

Memed about Los Angeles

Four Jobs I’ve Had In My Life in LA:
Product Manager
Product Manager
Product Marketing Manager
Program Manager

Four Movies About LA I Could Watch Over And Over (in fictional chronological order):
LA Confidential
Chinatown
Heat
Blade Runner

Four Places I’ve Lived All Over L.A. (With Food Memories From Each):
Beverly Hills: Mulberry Street Pizza
West LA: Cacao
Culver City: The Outdoor Grill
West LA: Hurry Curry of Tokyo

Four LA-Themed Shows I Love(d) To Watch:
Three’s Company
The A Team
The Tonight Show
Eye On LA
(ok, so I don’t really watch TV anymore, but when I was a kid, I watched a bunch)

Four Places I Would Vacation At In LA:
Beach
Mountain
Casino
City

Four LA-Based Websites I Visit Daily:
Bill Rini
WWdN
The Obituarium
Curbed LA

Four Of My Favorite Foods Found In LA:
The last or second to last chicken dish at Havana Mania
The chicken supper at Uncle Darrow’s
Fatburger
Korean food

Four Places In LA I Would Rather Be Right Now:
In Bed
Asleep
Not working
Relaxing

Tagged:
Screw it.